Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene.

In the Anthropocene, intensifying ecological disturbances pose significant challenges to our predictive capabilities for ecosystem responses. Macroecology-which focuses on emergent statistical patterns in ecological systems-unveils consistent regularities in the organization of biodiversity and ecosystems. These regularities appear in terms of abundance, body size, geographical range, species interaction networks, or the flux of matter and energy. This paper argues for moving beyond qualitative resilience metaphors, such as the 'ball and cup', towards a more quantitative macroecological framework. We suggest a conceptual and theoretical basis for ecological resilience that integrates macroecology with a stochastic diffusion approximation constrained by principles of biological symmetry. This approach provides an alternative novel framework for studying ecological resilience in the Anthropocene. We demonstrate how our framework can effectively quantify the impacts of major disturbances and their extensive ecological ramifications. We further show how biological scaling insights can help quantify the consequences of major disturbances, emphasizing their cascading ecological impacts. The nature of these impacts prompts a re-evaluation of our understanding of resilience. Emphasis on regularities of ecological assemblages can help illuminate resilience dynamics and offer a novel basis to predict and manage the impacts of disturbance in the Anthropocene more efficiently. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate.

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.

Perspectivas sobre el momento del colapso ecosistémico en un clima cambiante Resumen El cambio climático es uno de los principales causantes del cambio ecosistémico, cuyo impacto a escala global se intensificará en las próximas dos décadas. No sólo es un reto estimar el momento de los cambios sin precedentes, sino también es de gran importancia para el desarrollo de las directrices de conservación de los ecosistemas. El momento de aparición (MdA), el punto en el que el cambio climático puede diferenciarse de un clima previo; es un concepto de aplicación extensa en los estudios de climatología y proporciona una estrategia sólida pero poco explorada para evaluar el riesgo del colapso ecosistémico, como está descrito por el criterio C de la Lista Roja de Ecosistemas (LRE) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza. Identificamos las tres consideraciones teóricas del MdA para la evaluación de la LRE (grado de estabilidad, análisis multifactoriales en vez de unidimensionales y distintivos del colapso ecosistémico) y cuatro fuentes de incertidumbre cuando se aplica la metodología MdA (difusión intermodelo, periodo de referencia histórica, consenso entre las variables y consideración de escenarios distintos), la cual busca evitar el mal uso y los errores mientras se promueve una aplicación adecuada del marco de los científicos y lo practicantes. La incorporación del MdA a las evaluaciones de la LRE añade información importante para el establecimiento de prioridades de conservación que permiten la predicción de cambios dentro y más allá del marco temporal propuesto por la LRE.

Metastatic cells exploit their stoichiometric niche in the network of cancer ecosystems.

Metastasis is a nonrandom process with varying degrees of organotropism-specific source-acceptor seeding. Understanding how patterns between source and acceptor tumors emerge remains a challenge in oncology. We hypothesize that organotropism results from the macronutrient niche of cells in source and acceptor organs. To test this, we constructed and analyzed a metastatic network based on 9303 records across 28 tissue types. We found that the topology of the network is nested and modular with scale-free degree distributions, reflecting organotropism along a specificity/generality continuum. The variation in topology is significantly explained by the matching of metastatic cells to their stoichiometric niche. Specifically, successful metastases are associated with higher phosphorus content in the acceptor compared to the source organ, due to metabolic constraints in proliferation crucial to the invasion of new tissues. We conclude that metastases are codetermined by processes at source and acceptor organs, where phosphorus content is a limiting factor orchestrating tumor ecology.

Violence in fishing, hunting, and gathering societies of the Atacama Desert coast: A long-term perspective (10,000 BP-AD 1450).

In this study, we examine the long-term trajectory of violence in societies that inhabited the coast of the Atacama Desert in northern Chile using three lines of evidence: bioarchaeology, geoarchaeology and socio-cultural contexts (rock art, weapons, and settlement patterns). These millennia-old populations adopted a way of life, which they maintained for 10,000 years, based on fishing, hunting, and maritime gathering, complementing this with terrestrial resources. We analyzed 288 adult individuals to search for traumas resulting from interpersonal violence and used strontium isotopes 87Sr/86Sr as a proxy to evaluate whether individuals that showed traces of violence were members of local or non-local groups. Moreover, we evaluated settlement patterns, rock art, and weapons. The results show that the violence was invariant during the 10,000 years in which these groups lived without contact with the western world. During the Formative Period (1000 BC-AD 500), however, the type of violence changed, with a substantial increase in lethality. Finally, during the Late Intermediate Period (AD 1000-1450), violence and lethality remained similar to that of the Formative Period. The chemical signal of Sr shows a low frequency of individuals who were coastal outsiders, suggesting that violence occurred between local groups. Moreover, the presence of weapons and rock art depicting scenes of combat supports the notion that these groups engaged in violence. By contrast, the settlement pattern shows no defensive features. We consider that the absence of centralized political systems could have been a causal factor in explaining violence, together with the fact that these populations were organized in small-scale grouping. Another factor may have been competition for the same resources in the extreme environments of the Atacama Desert. Finally, from the Formative Period onward, we cannot rule out a certain level of conflict between fishers and their close neighbors, the horticulturalists.

A general theory for temperature dependence in biology.

At present, there is no simple, first principles-based, and general model for quantitatively describing the full range of observed biological temperature responses. Here we derive a general theory for temperature dependence in biology based on Eyring-Evans-Polanyi's theory for chemical reaction rates. Assuming only that the conformational entropy of molecules changes with temperature, we derive a theory for the temperature dependence of enzyme reaction rates which takes the form of an exponential function modified by a power law and that describes the characteristic asymmetric curved temperature response. Based on a few additional principles, our model can be used to predict the temperature response above the enzyme level, thus spanning quantum to classical scales. Our theory provides an analytical description for the shape of temperature response curves and demonstrates its generality by showing the convergence of all temperature dependence responses onto universal relationships-a universal data collapse-under appropriate normalization and by identifying a general optimal temperature, around 25 ∘C, characterizing all temperature response curves. The model provides a good fit to empirical data for a wide variety of biological rates, times, and steady-state quantities, from molecular to ecological scales and across multiple taxonomic groups (from viruses to mammals). This theory provides a simple framework to understand and predict the impact of temperature on biological quantities based on the first principles of thermodynamics, bridging quantum to classical scales.

How do we best synergize climate mitigation actions to co-benefit biodiversity?

A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co-benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co-benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes. Not all climate mitigation strategies are equally effective at producing biodiversity co-benefits, some in fact are counterproductive. Moreover, social implications are often overlooked within the climate-biodiversity nexus. Protecting biodiverse and carbon-rich natural environments, ecological restoration of potentially biodiverse and carbon-rich habitats, the deliberate creation of novel habitats, taking into consideration a locally adapted and meaningful (i.e. full consequences considered) mix of these measures, can result in the most robust win-win solutions. These can be further enhanced by avoidance of narrow goals, taking long-term views and minimizing further losses of intact ecosystems. In this review paper, we first discuss various climate mitigation actions that evidence demonstrates can negatively impact biodiversity, resulting in unseen and unintended negative consequences. We then examine climate mitigation actions that co-deliver biodiversity and societal benefits. We give examples of these win-win solutions, categorized as 'protect, restore, manage and create', in different regions of the world that could be expanded, upscaled and used for further innovation.

Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water.

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to biodiversity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the biodiversity and climate conventions.

Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected cities particularly hard. Here, we provide an in-depth characterization of disease incidence and mortality and their dependence on demographic and socioeconomic strata in Santiago, a highly segregated city and the capital of Chile. Our analyses show a strong association between socioeconomic status and both COVID-19 outcomes and public health capacity. People living in municipalities with low socioeconomic status did not reduce their mobility during lockdowns as much as those in more affluent municipalities. Testing volumes may have been insufficient early in the pandemic in those places, and both test positivity rates and testing delays were much higher. We find a strong association between socioeconomic status and mortality, measured by either COVID-19-attributed deaths or excess deaths. Finally, we show that infection fatality rates in young people are higher in low-income municipalities. Together, these results highlight the critical consequences of socioeconomic inequalities on health outcomes.

Survival of the Systems.

Since Darwin, individuals and more recently genes, have been the focus of evolutionary thinking. The idea that selection operates on nonreproducing, higher-level systems including ecosystems or societies, has met with scepticism. But research emphasising that natural selection can be based solely on differential persistence invites reconsideration of their evolution. Self-perpetuating feedback cycles involving biotic as well as abiotic components are critical to determining persistence. Evolution of autocatalytic networks of molecules is well studied, but the principles hold for any 'self-perpetuating' system. Ecosystem examples include coral reefs, rainforests, and savannahs. Societal examples include agricultural systems, dominant belief systems, and economies. Persistence-based selection of feedbacks can help us understand how ecological and societal systems survive or fail in a changing world.

Alteration of coastal productivity and artisanal fisheries interact to affect a marine food web.

Top-down and bottom-up forces determine ecosystem function and dynamics. Fisheries as a top-down force can shorten and destabilize food webs, while effects driven by climate change can alter the bottom-up forces of primary productivity. We assessed the response of a highly-resolved intertidal food web to these two global change drivers, using network analysis and bioenergetic modelling. We quantified the relative importance of artisanal fisheries as another predator species, and evaluated the independent and combined effects of fisheries and changes in plankton productivity on food web dynamics. The food web was robust to the loss of all harvested species but sensitive to the decline in plankton productivity. Interestingly, fisheries dampened the negative impacts of decreasing plankton productivity on non-harvested species by reducing the predation pressure of harvested consumers on non-harvested resources, and reducing the interspecific competition between harvested and non-harvested basal species. In contrast, the decline in plankton productivity increased the sensitivity of harvested species to fishing by reducing the total productivity of the food web. Our results show that strategies for new scenarios caused by climate change are needed to protect marine ecosystems and the wellbeing of local communities dependent on their resources.

Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile.

The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted dense urban populations particularly hard. Here, we provide an in-depth characterization of disease incidence and mortality patterns, and their dependence on demographic and socioeconomic strata in Santiago, a highly segregated city and the capital of Chile. We find that among all age groups, there is a strong association between socioeconomic status and both mortality -measured either by direct COVID-19 attributed deaths or excess deaths- and public health capacity. Specifically, we show that behavioral factors like human mobility, as well as health system factors such as testing volumes, testing delays, and test positivity rates are associated with disease outcomes. These robust patterns suggest multiple possibly interacting pathways that can explain the observed disease burden and mortality differentials: (i) in lower socioeconomic status municipalities, human mobility was not reduced as much as in more affluent municipalities; (ii) testing volumes in these locations were insufficient early in the pandemic and public health interventions were applied too late to be effective; (iii) test positivity and testing delays were much higher in less affluent municipalities, indicating an impaired capacity of the health-care system to contain the spread of the epidemic; and (iv) infection fatality rates appear much higher in the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum. Together, these findings highlight the exacerbated consequences of health-care inequalities in a large city of the developing world, and provide practical methodological approaches useful for characterizing COVID-19 burden and mortality in other segregated urban centers.

Do microenvironmental changes disrupt multicellular organisation with ageing, enacting and favouring the cancer cell phenotype?

Cancer is a singular cellular state, the emergence of which destabilises the homeostasis reached through the evolution to multicellularity. We present the idea that the onset of the cellular disobedience to the metazoan functional and structural architecture, known as the cancer phenotype, is triggered by changes in the cell's external environment that occur with ageing: what ensues is a breach of the social contract of multicellular life characteristic of metazoans. By integrating old ideas with new evidence, we propose that with ageing the environmental information that maintains a multicellular organisation is eroded, rewiring internal processes of the cell, and resulting in an internal shift towards an ancestral condition resulting in the pseudo-multicellular cancer phenotype. Once that phenotype emerges, a new local social contract is built, different from the homeostatic one, leading to tumour formation and the foundation of a novel local ecosystem.

Reconstructing ecological networks with noisy dynamics.

Ecosystems functioning is based on an intricate web of interactions among living entities. Most of these interactions are difficult to observe, especially when the diversity of interacting entities is large and they are of small size and abundance. To sidestep this limitation, it has become common to infer the network structure of ecosystems from time series of species abundance, but it is not clear how well can networks be reconstructed, especially in the presence of stochasticity that propagates through ecological networks. We evaluate the effects of intrinsic noise and network topology on the performance of different methods of inferring network structure from time-series data. Analysis of seven different four-species motifs using a stochastic model demonstrates that star-shaped motifs are differentially detected by these methods while rings are differentially constructed. The ability to reconstruct the network is unaffected by the magnitude of stochasticity in the population dynamics. Instead, interaction between the stochastic and deterministic parts of the system determines the path that the whole system takes to equilibrium and shapes the species covariance. We highlight the effects of long transients on the path to equilibrium and suggest a path forward for developing more ecologically sound statistical techniques.

Violence in hunters, fishermen, and gatherers of the Chinchorro culture: Archaic societies of the Atacama Desert (10,000-4,000 cal yr BP).

OBJECTIVES: This article addresses evidence of violence imbedded in both soft and hard tissues from early populations of hunters, fishermen, and gatherers, known as the Chinchorro culture, who lived between 10,000 and 4,000 cal yr BP, along the coast of the Atacama Desert, one of the driest environments on Earth. Our study is aimed to test two hypotheses (a) that interactions and violent behaviors increased through time as population density and social complexity augmented; and (b) that violence was more prevalent between local Chinchorro groups and groups from other inland locations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Two lines of data were analyzed: (1) bioarchaeology, through the quantification of physical traces of interpersonal violence in skeletons and mummies from a sample of 136 adult individuals and, (2) isotopic chemical analysis (strontium) of individuals with traces of trauma in order to determine their local or foreign origin. RESULTS: Violence among Chinchorro populations was ubiquitous and remained invariant over time, with a remarkable skew to male (about 25% above female across the complete sample). Moreover, the chemical signature of individuals with traces of violence was not of foreign origin. DISCUSSION: The violence exerted by the Chinchorro groups was not related to increased population size, nor social complexity and was mostly restricted to individuals coming from the same coastal habitat. That is, our data suggest that violence was constant across the Archaic period among the Chinchorro, implying that violent behavior was part of the sociocultural repertory of these populations, likely associated to mechanisms to resolve conflicts and social tensions.

The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants.

A key feature of life's diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth's plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth's ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth's plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change.

A 19 Year Analysis of Small Mammals Associated with Human Hantavirus Cases in Chile.

Small mammals present in areas where hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) cases had occurred in central and southern Chile were captured and analyzed to evaluate the abundance of rodents and seroprevalence rates of antibodies to Andes orthohantavirus (ANDV). Sampling areas ranged from the Coquimbo to Aysén regions (30-45° S approx.) regions. Ninety-two sites in peridomestic and countryside areas were evaluated in 19 years of sampling. An antibody against ANDV was detected by strip immunoassay in 58 of 1847 specimens captured using Sherman traps. Of the eleven species of rodents sampled, Abrothrix olivacea, Oligoryzomys longicaudatus and Abrothrix hirta were the most frequently trapped. O. longicaudatus had the highest seropositivity rate, and by logistic regression analysis, O. longicaudatus of at least 60 g had 80% or higher probability to be seropositive. Sex, age and wounds were significantly related to seropositivity only for O. longicaudatus. Across administrative regions, the highest seropositivity was found in the El Maule region (34.8-36.2° S), and the highest number of HCPS cases was registered in the Aysén region. Our results highlight the importance of long term and geographically extended studies, particularly for highly fluctuating pathogens and their reservoirs, to understand the implications of the dynamics and transmission of zoonotic diseases in human populations.